BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
There’s a good deal of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going heavier than usual this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than usual. Here is the first time we have seen a $30k top prize, therefore I believe it is worth chasing in the event that you have the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling out of the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 battles and we ought to see a great deal of ties with this card with all the popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you will want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the rest of the area. That said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line worth to pass in money games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he must be highly owned it won’t even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I literally just picked Paul Felder as my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups didn’t possess him and you merely have to be top ~50 percent of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I am imagining Felder will probably be over 50% owned. When he loses, that’s half of the area that’s dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% simply due to this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you also get a win with the low owned man to put you in a much better location of a solo 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anyone and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it really shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 decades before, but today we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for most the struggle which should give him a big edge. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and when he’s taken I believe he is going to have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to get a entry of his own. In case Pettis can acquire a determination then I presume he will pay his off DK price tag and will be a good underdog to use so you can save salary in your lineups. I can also see this battle ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa using a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he can make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the struggle, but I don’t see him paying off that large price . He doesn’t fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins as well as the floor is where he’ll have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks