BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW
There is a good deal of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. DK also has lots of Qualifier contests available this week, where the last event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to perform inside. I will be chasing those as well because we’ve not ever had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I do think we’ve got a enjoyable card this Saturday and I am ready to go into this 3-week break with a winning night in UFC 227. Here are a few plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of the week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in most DFS MMA and he’s the highest ceiling too. DJ is the P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he’s beat Cejudo once before. This is the first person I am plugging into my cash LU this week and I suggest you do the same. DJ is practically sure to score at 100-points in a win, and he has a -550 betting line stating he must find the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in money. You can stack this battle as well, however I think DJ is a must.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good fight to target this week since it probably will not go to a choice. Holland just fought on the Contender Series a few weeks back and didn’t receive a contract. But today he’s about the PPV against one of the most bizarre strikers from the branch. The ITD lineup for Santos is currently -210 and the below 1.5 rounds gambling line is -160. This tells me Vegas believes this fight ends ancient and Santos is the guy which should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off in a 1st round win and I think he has a solid shot at doing just that. I don’t care for him as much in cash game formats however because both men have quite low floors, so this is a GPP only play for me.
Underdog drama of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I think everyone is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he’s so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling fashion Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside in a decision win. Obviously, we’re worried about him getting caught in a guillotine when he shoots for takedowns, but when he can avoid that I believe he can win this fight and 10x his salary with a triumph. I don’t think Johns will want to strike with Munhoz for 15-minutes so I do believe he is going to be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns could get him submitted, or they may get him a win over the scorecards. But that makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he’s a solid underdog to select in GPPs this past week.
Fade of the week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at an affordable $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a end to pay that price label off with her style. She has the worst fashion possible for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she’s a win here she could end up scoring significantly less than some losers on the card. Taylor will be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so if you would like to invest your money on a 115 lb lady with a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be very contrarian taking that route. However, I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I’d still full vanish Taylor here.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks