BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I enjoy the new choice of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games. Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100) I’m really not loving this slate to get money games, and I was only going to decide on the main event stack for my money game play of this week. However, I can see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a great money game play. I really don’t understand how high of a ceiling he’s since I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I think he has a top floor since this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and I think he can finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my cash game play of the week instead of my GPP play. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400) I think the only way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I believe Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but that is why he’s my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of the week. In cash, I want to lock in higher floors and that is not what we have here. I enjoy this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many things he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a gain if he dropped a determination at the price and scored 30-40 points, we’d just need to hit our other spots. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside because he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and I could see him getting multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular. Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300) I am actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this fight to remain position for as long as it lasts. Personally, I find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That’s why he is my underdog drama of the week. Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900) I must stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him as my fade each time he’s fought so that I will roll with it . The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score tremendously is by getting a win. He does not strike at a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he will not be heading for any takedowns. Even if he gets a conclusion win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week. Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: (Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The most important GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st location. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games. Cash Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100) I am not loving this slate for money games, and that I was just going to decide on the main event stack for my cash game play of the week. But, I will see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and when I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I believe Shane Young creates a fantastic money game play. I don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has since I really do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he’s a high floor because this fight should go all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter anyplace and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he has 100-point upside in a decision, and I also think he could finish this battle. But I feel like he is a secure play for 80+ and that’s why he’s my money game play of the week instead of my GPP play. GPP play of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400) I think the only real way Kang loses this battle is by becoming KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I think Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is exactly why he’s my GPP drama of the week and not my money game play of this week. In money, I want to lock in higher floors and that’s not what we have here. I like this for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many points he’s, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a profit if he lost a determination at the price and scored 30-40 points, we’d just need to hit on our other areas. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he has 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and that I could see him becoming numerous takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who might be popular. Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300) I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to remain position for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s the case, then I believe Gastelum has the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a reasonable number of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not place him on the $30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he is my underdog drama of the week. Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900) I must stay on new with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have picked him as my fade every time he has fought so that I am going to roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score highly is by obtaining a win. He fails to strike at a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and that he will not be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter when I roll them and with his $7.9k price tag, so I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week. Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below: (Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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