BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I enjoy the new choice of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st location. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate to get money games, and I was only going to decide on the main event stack for my money game play of this week. However, I can see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a great money game play. I really don’t understand how high of a ceiling he’s since I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I think he has a top floor since this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I think he is the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and I think he can finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my cash game play of the week instead of my GPP play. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I believe Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but that is why he’s my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of the week. In cash, I want to lock in higher floors and that is not what we have here. I enjoy this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many things he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a gain if he dropped a determination at the price and scored 30-40 points, we’d just need to hit our other spots. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside because he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and I could see him getting multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this fight to remain position for as long as it lasts. Personally, I find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That’s why he is my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on brand with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him as my fade each time he’s fought so that I will roll with it . The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score tremendously is by getting a win. He does not strike at a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he will not be heading for any takedowns. Even if he gets a conclusion win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)