BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC debut so it is always nice when you are already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the greatest, but there is still a great deal of money to be obtained. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week: Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600) This is the way I’ll be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those types of fights are great for DraftKings. Notably cash games because we can lock in a win and get all the points in the best battle on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the job done in money games and we’ll get over 100 points on this battle. But with that triumph locked in, we simply need to find 3 others we feel great about. GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500) It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k to get a man like Barberena when you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I believe that is what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I think we will get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his massive salary, and he’s got a very good chance at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is totally faded, then I believe that you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his old self. I think Barberena does pick up an end in this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he is under possessed. Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500) This is just the easy value play of this week. Currently, Fili is the gambling favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it is available so I think he’s in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with all the value we are getting on him, but I am ready to eat that chalk and I do not want to get burned by completely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I think he will have a fantastic chance at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t require a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do the trick. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK. Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900) This could just be my personal bias but I will not possess Drew Dober in some of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just looking to attack. I think this is going to be a striking battle also and I think it will be nearer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I think we will require a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that occurring. Should you think Dober can find a KO, then you should be enjoying him. I’ll only be paying up elsewhere since I am not sure he can find that finish and I would not be amazed if he even lost the fight. I will say I never seem to utilize Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again but I am going to stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln. If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on every struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my pick outlook for every single fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it’s always nice once you are already acquainted with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the greatest, but there’s still a lot of money to be won. I’ll personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize at the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week: Cash Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600) This is how I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year type conflicts. Those types of fights are great for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock at a win and receive all the points at the best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the business done in money games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we simply have to find 3 other people we feel good about. GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500) It’s tough to want to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena if you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. However, I think that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a marginally lower possession as a consequence of his large salary, and he’s got a very good shot at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, I believe that you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up a finish inside this struggle so that I will throw him some GPPs and hope he’s beneath possessed. Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500) This is just the effortless value play of the week. Presently, Fili is the gambling favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it is available so I presume he is in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with the value we’re becoming on himbut I am ready to eat that chalk and I don’t want to get burnt by entirely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a good chance at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he is the easy underdog of the week on DK. Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900) This may just be my own personal prejudice but I will not have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just looking to attack. I think this is going to be a striking battle also and I think it’s going to be closer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I think we will need a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I really don’t see that happening. If you do believe Dober can get a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I’ll only be paying up elsewhere because I am not sure he can get that complete and I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost the fight. I will say I never look to utilize Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln. If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each fight, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my pick outlook for every single fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *