BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+7 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week considering it is a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t think there are really no money locks this week, so I needed to bring up a cash plan I use a lot of the moment, which is punting in money and accepting a reduction. I really don’t think Roxy gets the win , but she is only $6.9k and that I think she receives 15-minutes of actions. I like the flooring which accompanies this and punting along with her cheap cost allows us to fit in more of those higher favorites with our other 5 spots. We do not want 6 wins in money games, so that I don’t believe we will need to even try for it. I enjoy playing cash games safer and if I can lock 25-35 points in a reduction from Roxy at her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in cash and over 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everyone else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score that can conquer 50% or more of the area.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my opinion and I enjoy Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this move all 5 rounds. I also think Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him in the striking game. The sole shooter Oleinik has of winning on the toes is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke on the feet. In addition, I believe Overeem will work his way back into his feet if he’s removed and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the quicker he will gas outside. I like the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I believe he gets a finish in around 2 or 1. That should give us near 100 DK points or even more, and I want that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they are released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he is favored to get the win. I was really impressed by what I saw out of this child and I agree with the line motion. I do think he has the win here, but it’s the DK worth that we want to make certain to get exposure to the weekend. I believe he’s a great play cash games with the current price and that I hope to be overweight on him in GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a popular as among those”underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week because of her $9.3k price tag. I do think she gets the win here as I said earlier, I just don’t see the way she’ll pay off that salary without a finish. I really don’t see her shooting any takedowns in this game, and I don’t wish to rely on her obtaining knockdown points . Thus, we are only going to be getting 0.5 points per significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus if she wins a choice. If that is true, we’d need her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to secure more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being the case and I believe she likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision win. At her salary, that will not win anybody the big $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting for so that is why she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 69-41 for +237.39un (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)